Conclave: " Primaries" Get under Way

By Andrea Tornielli
Vatican Insider
March 10, 2013

http://vaticaninsider.lastampa.it/en/news/detail/articolo/conclave-23032/

Conclave: Cardinals are ready

The first voting session to elect the new Pope will take place on Tuesday 12th at 6 pm. The strongest candidates are Scola and Scherer

The Conclave’s real test, after the “extra omnes” pronounced by the Master of Ceremonies and the closure of the Sistine Chapel’s heavy wooden door, will come at around 6 pm this coming Tuesday.

The initial scrutiny for the election of Benedict XVI’s successor is the equivalent of political primaries. This is when the real candidates will shine through, those who have the strongest chances of getting majority votes. These will be the candidates who emerged as favourites in last week’s informal meetings.

The 2005 Conclave was a first for all but two cardinals. While the crowds paid their respects to Pope Wojtyla, a number of influential cardinals were subtly trying to push for the election of the strongest candidate among the cardinals: the Prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, Joseph Ratzinger. The so-called “progressivists”, who were already at death’s door so to speak, tried to get Cardinal Carlo Maria Martini through but he only obtained 12 votes in the first scrutiny, while Ratzinger obtained a consistently high majority, with 47 votes in his favour. This time there is much more uncertainty but it is highly unlikely groups of electors will be trying to reach a consensus on the basis of a cardinals’ nationality. What has emerged from the recently held discussions is that cardinals are looking for a man with spiritual depth, who is able to govern, engage in dialogue and communicate. Even if there is no candidate who has quite the same authority and power as Ratzinger, the almost unanimous decision to bring the Conclave forward proves that something must have happened between Wednesday and Thursday.

Although any prediction should be taken with a pinch of salt, interviews with various cardinals seem to confirm the Archbishop of Milan, Angelo Scola, as a solid candidate for the papacy as he is believed to have a significant number of votes under his belt. Another candidate who should have a good head start in terms of votes, is U.S. cardinal Timothy Dolan. Consensus is also likely to be reached on Canadian cardinals, Marc Ouellet. Scola, Dolan and Ouellet are fishing from pools of voters who are partly superimposable. So it could be that in the second voting session, some of their consensuses are be transferred to the candidate who turns out to be strongest.

 The Archbishop of Budapest Peter Erdö belongs to this group. Helooks to take a backseat in the first voting session but if there is a stalemate situation prevails his name could be considered. The Archbishop of Boston, Cardinal Sean O’Malley also fits into this group. Various statements made in recent days have shown that this time, the U.S. Church is destined to play a more prominent role than in the past, in terms of candidates and influence.

Which papabile will become Scola’s “rival” for the papacy? The name that is being mentioned recurrently is that of the Archbishop of São Paulo, Cardinal Odilo Pedro Scherer. He has extensive experience working in the Curia, as well as being a member of the Vatican Bank (IOR)’s supervisory committee and in the fifteen-strong council of cardinals that deals with the Holy See’s finances: There are some Curia members who could form a consensus to vote for him. The name of the Vatican “minister of culture”, Cardinal Gian Franco Ravasi is off the radar for the time being. He could receive the votes of cardinals who are closest to the Secretary of State, Tarcisio Bertone.

How will Asian, African and Latin American cardinals vote? The Latin Americans could very well vote for a candidate from their continent. Another two South American cardinals we should keep an eye out for are the Archbishop of Guadalajara, José Francisco Robles Ortega and the Archbishop of Buenos Aires, Jorge Mario Bergoglio. Both of them are outsiders who could be considered if the voting process is prolonged. The same goes for the Filippino Luis Antonio Tagle and the Archbishop of Colombo, Malcolm Ranijth who has held roles in the Curia twice.

Votes for internal Curia candidacies, however, do not seem to be consistent: during yesterday morning’s ninth General Congregation, a number of cardinals were critical of the Curia’s management, its involvement in all the various scandals, financial questions, the excessive number of Italian nominations and the problems in the functioning of dicasteries and the Secretariat of State.