Tipping a Tipping Point in Catholicism

By Godless Gross
Sydney Morning Herald
November 19, 2012

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/blogs/godless-gross/tipping-a-tipping-point-in-catholicism-20121119-29ldx.html

The Catholic train wreck is unfolding before us. An organisation that claims moral leadership ought to be a paragon.

The evidence of abuse has been compounded by a sordid protection of the guilty and the resistance to scrutiny and change. Weird and neolithic attitudes about obedience, sex and forgiveness appear to have produced strange and cruel consequences. The damage to lives is incalculable. This we all know and have known for years. It has consumed this blog on and off for some time.

But what is the damage to the church and its moral authority?

In all of the noise and fury, we may be witnessing a historical moment for faith in Australia. Apart from the damage to individuals, what does this crisis mean for Catholicism and other faiths? Will it destroy the credibility of Catholicism as we know it or will it galvanise the change agents in the Catholic kingdom and lead to adjustment and renewal? Can the reputational damage be limited to Catholicism?

This is a moment of truth for Australian faith.

I am tipping a tipping point. A tipping point is that time when society changes dramatically as a result of an event.

The royal commission will soon start its work. A Fairfax/Nielsen poll has shown that an unprecedented 95 per cent of Australians support the government's decision to launch a royal commission. It appears that Australians are shocked and impatient.

The commission will, in all probability, chronicle an abhorrent history. It will be excruciating but necessary. Catholicism will be purged by the brute force of public exposure. The funny thing is that the very commission that Cardinal George Pell resisted may be the thing that saves Catholicism in Australia in the longer term.

There are various notions that describe moments of historical change. Thomas Kuhn wrote of the paradigm shift – that moment when the basic assumptions or paradigms change forever. The Darwinian and Copernican revolutions heralded such transformation. Another buzzword for a similar phenomenon is the "tipping point", described by Malcolm Gladwell as when certain events have a revolutionary effect.

A tipping point is hard to discern. I cannot, however, believe that this global scandal will not cause at least profound medium-term damage to Catholicism. However, it is also possible that the crisis will lead to reform and regeneration. This is an unlikely scenario but must not be discounted. Australian Catholicism is full of reformers and decency. The Catholics for Ministry are but one example.

In a political sense, centuries of glacial secularisation have already partially tipped the bucket. This was exemplified at the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development when the conference largely ignored the views of Pope John Paul II on contraception.

So there is a long history of decline in power and influence as manifested by empty pews, abating political credibility and depopulation of the priesthood.

But don't be deceived into believing that this is a one-way trip down the plughole. The number of Catholics is surging globally, from 437 million in 1970 to three-fold that number today (nudging 1.2 billion). That doesn't sound like a tipping point to me. It is huge growth. Catholicism is winning converts in sub-Saharan Africa and east Asia. But it is not just a numbers game. That exponential growth must be taken into account with the decline in the quality of belief in the West.

Let me look at a crystal ball for a minute. I see Catholicism growing in Africa and Asia and losing its moral grandeur in the West. It's centralised structure will console itself with conquests in its new world.

So the forces for change in the West will be resisted for the foreseeable future. This will lead to fracturing in the West and an uncomfortable relationship between the various Catholic congregations. In Australia, Catholicism will recover over time if the reformers succeed.

I suspect that the reformers of the church may have problems. The growth in Africa and Asia may embolden Rome to resist change for another century or two. The growing congregations tend, if the Anglican example in Africa is a precedent, to be quite conservative. So the conservatism of the growth areas could further fetter the reformers.

If reform fails, I see the Australian Catholic Church losing members and assets to other denominations or secular organisations that will take over the significant welfare assets.

Thus, Catholicism might well prosper and grow globally but, like Presbyterianism, become a shattered husk in Australia as Christians decamp to less problematic denominations that don't require their clergy to take such demanding vows.

Questions about how the church has handled child abuse allegations will not die. The royal commission will soon start its work. Paradoxically, it might be a saving grace for Australian Catholicism.

What is your view?

• Is this the death knell for Australian Catholicism or will it survive?
• Will Catholicism ever be able to adopt reforms most of us think are unexceptional
• Will it need to change anyway after it survives the abuse crisis?
• What part did abstinence play in this drama?
• Should the seal of the confession be broken?