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	State of the States: They're Neck and Neck Politico December 1, 2007 http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1107/7112.html Iowa polls show the race in both parties goes beyond the two front-runners. This weekend's Brown & Black Forum could make a big difference; our correspondent has a preview, below. In Iowa, many voters know how to caucus; in Nevada they're new at it. As the close Democratic races in Iowa and New Hampshire put Nevada's Jan. 19 caucus at the center of the radar screen, campaigns are teaching voters there just how to vote. But one Democrat might have waited too long to visit South Carolina, where all eyes will turn after Nevada. Hillary Rodham Clinton finds herself competing head-to-head with Barack Obama there, and she's not getting any help from Oprah Winfrey. Obama and Clinton are neck and neck in New Hampshire, too, but the state Democratic party is focused on another battle: its effort to convince the Democratic National Committee that all New Hampshire delegates should be seated at next summer's convention. Yes, the primary calendar controversy continues… In Iowa, who's in first? By Jason Clayworth The most recent round of polls released within the past week show that Iowa's front-runners in both parties are either in dead heats or have been knocked from the top spot. But the polls show the race on both sides is tight, leaving Iowa caucus-goers with an increased sense of energy as excitement levels among the campaigns increase and comparisons among candidates become more pointed. Rasmussen Reports released the poll that captured the biggest headlines this week. It showed Mike Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, beating former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. The polls showed Huckabee with 28 percent of the support of likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers and Romney with 25. Huckabee — once considered an Iowa long shot — has been creeping up from the single-digit range in many polls ever since his second-place showing at the Ames Straw Poll Republican fundraiser in August. The Rasmussen poll is the first to crown him with a lead. Most polls showed that Romney had been the Iowa front-runner since late May. He had a nearly 25-point lead over his nearest competitors during some periods of the summer, a few polls showed. The poll also showed former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, the national Republican front-runner, in distant third place with support from 12 percent of likely GOP caucus-goers. Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson had the support of 11 percent, and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas had 5 percent. Arizona Sen. John McCain and Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado each had 4 percent. Despite his second-place showing in the Rasmussen report, Romney's support in Iowa remains strong. Political experts credit much of that support with his aggressive campaigning in the state. Huckabee also is among one of the more aggressive Iowa GOP campaigners, according to the campaign visit tracker maintained by The Des Moines Register. Huckabee advocates have said his success is an indication that old-fashioned, retail, coffee-shop-like campaigns with strong person-to-person interaction remain a winning recipe to doing well in the caucuses. Meanwhile, a tight race also continues among Democrats. Last week an ABC News/Washington Post poll showed Illinois Sen. Barack Obama edging New York Sen. Hillary Clinton with 30 percent of likely Iowa caucus-goers next to her 26 percent. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards had 22 percent. This week, Obama and Clinton tied with 29 percent, according to poll from Strategic Visions. The nip and tuck polls are the reason Clinton made one of her most pointed attacks this week against Obama, his staff said. Clinton this week said Obama's health plan fails to mandate health coverage for all Americans. "He has called his plan universal, then he called it virtually universal, but it is not either," Clinton said during an Iowa campaign stop. "When it comes to truth in labeling, his plan simply flunks the test." Obama's staff responded by saying the plan reduces health costs, which is an important first step. If pockets of Americans remain without health care, additional steps would be taken, they said. Obama, during a phone conference call, accused Clinton of playing politics: "This is more of a political point that she's trying to make than a real point," he said Obama, next week, may see an additional boost of support due to a scheduled appearance from talk show host Oprah Winfrey. Winfrey will campaign with Obama on Dec. 8 in Des Moines and Cedar Rapids. Her mass appeal is expected to draw large crowds. Political experts say her endorsement alone is not likely enough to sway many voters. The advantage, however, is that her star appeal will likely help Obama spread his message to a wider audience, they said. In other Iowa news: — At least two relatively unpleasant caucus-related incidents occurred in Iowa this week, prompting political experts to caution residents to be aware and to expect an increase of such tactics. The first was a series of handwritten fliers distributed in the central Iowa region that advised caucus-goers to support Edwards, then indirectly referred to Clinton and Obama in abusive terms that included a racial slur. Campaign officials for Edwards campaign called the sign disgusting. Later in the week an e-mail cautioned voters against an alleged "pedophile priest" hired by Giuliani. The e-mail was sent by an Internet-based e-mail account under the name of a Romney field director. The field director vehemently denied that he had anything to do with the e-mail or that e-mail account. The e-mail directed voters to a blog item on InsideCatholic.com about Monsignor Alan Placa, a longtime friend of Giuliani's. Placa, who officiated at Giuliani's second wedding and works in his consulting firm, has been accused of molesting boys. Giuliani has defended his friend as recently as last month, reminding people that there's a presumption of innocence until proved guilty and that he is "going to give that to one of my closest friends." Paul Pate, the chairman for Giuliani's Iowa campaign, called the e-mail "dirty." "These kind of dirty tactics have no place in the political discourse," Pate said. — The diverse field of candidates in this year's presidential cycle has boosted the interest of a forum that will take place this weekend that focuses on minority issues, organizers said. The Iowa Brown & Black Presidential Forum is marketed as the nation's oldest and continuous minority presidential candidate event. It has taken place in each presidential cycle since 1984, but what makes this year's event an even bigger point of interest is the racial and gender makeup of the Democratic candidates, organizers said. There's a black man (Obama) who spent part of his childhood in Indonesia; a woman and former first lady (Clinton) who has spent decades in the public eye; and a Latino (Bill Richardson) who grew up in Mexico, worked as an U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and is now the governor of New Mexico. While race is not listed on voter registration forms, minority advocates generally agree that there's a disparity in the number of minorities who take part in the Iowa caucuses. In a poll taken in October by The Des Moines Register, for example, only 2 percent of likely caucus-goers identified themselves as a minority. But even though the state's 2.9 million people are 93 percent white, minorities could have a significant influence in the outcome of the presidential caucuses, particularly in a race that is as close as recent polls indicate, advocates say. "We can actually sway any election in the state and, if you pair that with the Latino vote, we're a very serious bloc. We should be taken very seriously," said Ako Abdul-Samad, a black leader in Des Moines who is also a Democratic state representative. All eight Democratic presidential candidates will participate in the Des Moines event. Each Republican candidate was invited to take part in a similar debate but the offers were either rejected because of scheduling conflicts or not responded to, organizers said. The event, which will be nationally broadcast, will run Saturday, Dec. 1, from 7 p.m. to 9 p.m. Central time. Jason Clayworth is a political reporter for The Des Moines Register. The Register and Politico.com are sharing content for the 2008 presidential campaign. Clinton and Giuliani find surprises in South Carolina By Leroy Chapman, Jr. Hillary Clinton returned to South Carolina Tuesday for the first time in seven weeks and found two surprises. One, her lead has evaporated. Two, the powerful woman Democratic voters are talking about these days isn't her but Oprah Winfrey. Winfrey is coming to the state Dec. 9 to stump for Clinton's chief rival, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.). Consequently, the Obama campaign has gotten bullish about its chances of winning South Carolina. Obama and Clinton are tied, less than two months away from the Democrats' Jan. 26 presidential primary. Clinton, according to this week's Clemson University Palmetto Poll, has seen her September lead in that poll vanish. Then, Clinton was favored by 26 percent of likely Democratic voters. Obama had 16 percent support and S.C. native and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards was at 10 percent. Clinton, in the survey taken Nov. 14-27, is now favored by 19 percent of likely Democratic voters. Obama is up to 17 percent and Edwards tallies at 12 percent. The margin of error is 4.62 percentage points. Nearly half of Democrats are undecided, according to the survey. The Obama campaign thinks a S.C. tie with Clinton favors Obama because: — Obama has just begun what will be substantial television ad buys in South Carolina. The Obama camp expects a boost from TV. — Undecided voters, though plentiful at nearly half, may not be undecided about what they think about Clinton. Political scientists say voters are likely to have an opinion about Clinton, a known quantity. The Obama campaign interprets indecision among Democrats as South Carolinians not being sold on Clinton, who they know, while still getting to know Obama. — Obama is surging among African American voters, who will cast roughly half of Democratic primary votes. The Clemson poll shows Obama with about 75 percent of the African American vote. Other polls show Obama leading among black voters. — About half of voters who said they'd made up their minds said they could see themselves making a different choice. That could work for or against Obama. But the Obama campaign is hoping it will work for him and that it has worked already in Clinton's sliding numbers. Then there's the Oprah factor. Will there be a big Oprah bounce? Obama is counting on it to surpass Clinton. October polling by Winthrop University of likely Democratic voters found Clinton leading among women and slightly behind Obama among black voters. Obama's camp thinks the Oprah visit can improve his standing with women and solidify his edge among black voters. On the flip side, the Clinton campaign plans to make more use of the other Clinton — the former president. Bill Clinton has visited South Carolina twice over the past month and he's coming back Dec. 17 for a dinner honoring his former Education secretary, former South Carolina Gov. Dick Riley. Clinton is still wildly popular with African Americans. Hilary Clinton arrived in South Carolina on Tuesday and got the endorsement of 60 African-American ministers in South Carolina. Those who spoke to the media that day stressed that Clinton is their choice because of her long-standing ties to the community. The only sure thing about this race at the moment might be that earlier talk about Clinton holding an insurmountable lead was off base. Another candidate who arrived in South Carolina this week to a surprise was Rudy Giuliani. The Clemson poll says the former New York mayor is now polling in the single digits, his support now half of what it was in a similar September poll. Giuliani, who had 18 percent support of likely Republican voters then, now has 9 percent support. Leading the poll is former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 17 percent, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson at 15 percent, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 13 percent and Arizona Sen. John McCain at 11 percent. Giuliani's fall coincides with Huckabee's surge and Texas Rep. Ron Paul's newfound popularity. The last Clemson poll showed Giuliani has the highest name recognition of the GOP candidates and the highest unfavorable rating. The swings of a long campaign are noteworthy, but less than two months from voting, South Carolinians are still undecided. The poll found 28 percent of Republicans and 49 percent of Democrats haven't made up their minds. Voters are keeping track. Just 8 percent of Democrats and 6 percent of Republicans surveyed said they "were not paying much attention" to the campaigns. Voters will likely begin making up their minds sometime after Christmas. "It isn't 2008 yet, and it is hard for the candidates to compete with Santa Claus," said Joseph Stewart, chairman of the political science department at Clemson University, citing the holiday season as a distraction to voters. Leroy Chapman Jr. is governance editor for The State. Politico.com and The State are sharing content for the 2008 presidential campaign. Caucus training for Vegas newbies By J. Patrick Coolican A group of four Democrats gathered inside a tidy mobile home in Las Vegas this week to hear about this thing called a caucus. Ryan Donohue, a field operative for New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, made his pitch for the candidate and went through some caucus basics. One key point: You have to be there on Jan. 19, and you have to be on time. Otherwise, your vote won't be counted. "So, you really have to show up on time?" asked Mark Burke, a voter who's committed to Clinton. Once this fact sunk in, Burke emphasized it to his fellow Clinton supporters several times during the meeting. "So we really need to be there on the 19th and on time," he told his fellow Clinton friends. He soon became a gem for the Clinton team, repeating obvious caucus essentials so the operatives didn't have to, which made the pitch more effective. So, Burke said again, we have to show up on time. And then: We should bring Clinton supporters with us. Yes! It was just one of countless moments in the past few months showing how far the campaigns have to go to bring along their voters and get them up to speed on the caucus. The campaigns have shown a new sense of urgency, as the 50-day countdown approaches and the task of caucus education and strategy becomes Job No. 1. Moreover, Nevada, once the dirty stepchild of the nomination process, is looking more and more important on the Democratic side. Here's why: If Illinois Sen. Barack Obama or former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards wins the Iowa caucus Jan. 3, and Clinton comes back with a Jan. 8 New Hampshire victory, much will be riding on Nevada Jan. 19. It could be a tiebreaker of sorts. The state Democratic Party has been conducting its own mock caucus events around the state, but the campaigns aren't relying on that effort. The Clinton campaign announced its own education initiative this week, to include caucus trainings and a Web site. And at a small meeting for precinct captains at Edwards' headquarters this week, Greg Leifer's briefing to his troops was a little more complicated, and they sometimes struggled to understand. He explained to them that if after the first round of voting, a candidate doesn't get the necessary minimum number of votes to be "viable," they can poach those voters for Edwards. "This is where it gets interesting," Leifer said. "The better you can talk about John, the better you know your neighbor, the better you can persuade them to come to John." Leifer told a story from Iowa, where he was a field worker in 2004. There, Edwards and Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich (D-Ohio) agreed to tell supporters to stand with the other candidate if the supporters' first choice wasn't viable. The captains looked a little baffled. Not to worry, said Edwards' aides. They call the training an "evolutionary" process that is now only just underway. Perhaps it was a show for a reporter, but a meeting of 88 Obama precinct captains became rowdy when field operative Jason Green asked his troops to make noise. The campaign said that over 72 hours this week it had 17 meetings like this one for precinct captains. The meetings began with campaign updates and a timeline on what will happen between now and Jan. 19, and ended with a mock caucus. John Gilbert, an Obama field operative, led the volunteers through the process. "You're going to be very tactical. You're going to say, 'We've got 21.' And you'll know that going in because you know your precinct so well. You'll say, 'Just what I thought.' And you'll know there are 19 for Clinton and four undecided." Once the second-tier candidates are declared not viable, and the undecideds are in their corner, the scramble will begin, he said: "They're up for grabs." J. Patrick Coolican is a political reporter for The Las Vegas Sun. The Sun and Politico.com are sharing content for the 2008 presidential election. Clinton and New Hampshire seek inevitability status By Andrew Cline While Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton tries to hold on to her image of inevitability, so too does the state of New Hampshire. This weekend New Hampshire's Democratic Party chairman pleads before the Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee to have all of his state's delegates seated at the convention. The DNC committee had said that no state that bucks the party's official primary and caucus calendar will have its delegates seated at the Denver convention this summer. It had scheduled the New Hampshire primary for Jan. 22. But of course, New Hampshire sets its own primary date, and just before Thanksgiving, Secretary of State Bill Gardner chose Jan. 8, five days after the Iowa caucuses and a week before the Michigan primary. Democratic Party Chairman Ray Buckley, who pleads his case Saturday morning, already has won the support of DNC member Donna Brazile, a longtime critic of the New Hampshire primary who helped lead the effort to weaken the state's influence in the presidential selection process. In New Hampshire, the vote is seen as a possible validation of the state's historical position in the nominating calendar. If the committee agrees to seat New Hampshire's delegates, it will send the signal that New Hampshire has defeated the DNC's attempt to knock the state from its perch. Meanwhile, Sen. Barack Obama is attempting to knock Clinton from her perch atop the polls in New Hampshire. Obama has remained roughly 13 points behind Clinton all month. Though some news reports, as happened the week before, have claimed that Obama is closing the gap with Clinton in New Hampshire, he remains statistically the same distance behind her that he did at the beginning of November. The gap has narrowed some since this summer. But as Clinton's numbers in New Hampshire have softened in November, Obama's numbers have not risen significantly. So it is inaccurate to say that Obama has closed the gap. In reality, Clinton's support has dropped off somewhat while Obama's has remained steady. Obama, however, is working to change that. In the past few weeks he has made many more visits to New Hampshire than Clinton has. This past week he delivered a major national security speech in Portsmouth and campaigned in northern New Hampshire, where he touted himself as a Washington outsider and urged voters to reject an insider who would not fundamentally change the way politics in our nation's capital works. His campaign also has picked up its outreach efforts. Obama's New Hampshire campaign has released several lists of supporters this year (educators, veterans, etc.) only to see Clinton's campaign later release an even bigger list of the same category of supporters. Now Obama's campaign is bumping up its numbers. Last week it claimed the support of 1,000 unaffiliated voters and boasted of the thousands of postcards its staff and volunteers had mailed to undecided voters. Many New Hampshire political analysts expect Clinton's numbers to weaken further in the next few weeks. In New Hampshire the frontrunner's numbers often soften immediately before the primary. The question is whether Obama can capitalize on that and convince voters to switch to him. Obama's constant criticism of Clinton's Washington experience does not appear to be gaining him any ground in New Hampshire. If he is to close the gap in the next month, he will probably have to try some new approaches. Even though Clinton's numbers have dropped off a bit here, she continues to round up most of the state's Democratic establishment. Last week Democratic Gov. John Lynch's wife, Dr. Susan Lynch, endorsed Clinton. Governor Lynch is remaining officially neutral. Susan lynch is a respected physician in Concord who has been an outspoken advocate for improving children's health. Probably her most high-profile political position as first lady was her outspoken opposition to allowing Dunkin' Donuts to open a franchise inside a local hospital. Though Clinton has the support of the governor's wife, the speaker of the House and the president of the Senate — both women — Obama is countering that next week by sending Oprah Winfrey to campaign for him in New Hampshire. On the GOP side, last Saturday, Rudy Giuliani picked up the endorsement of Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, an American of Italian descent who is originally from New Jersey. Giuliani seems to be rounding up a good number of the high-profile New Hampshire Republicans with Italian last names. Andrew Cline is editorial page editor of the New Hampshire Union Leader. Politico.com and the Union Leader are sharing content for the 2008 presidential campaign.
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